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JUST IN: Democrats Panic After Poll Reveals Reliably Blue State Is Neck-And-Neck

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3 months ago

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A blockbuster polling result released Friday shows that former President Donald Trump is expanding the electoral map into states that Democrats were counting to remain reliably blue through November.

In a two-way race, Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by just 2% in Virginia, home to the reelection campaign of Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), former Democratic governor Terry MacAuliffe, and a host of progressive voters in the wealthy suburbs of Louden County. However, all of those odds stacked against Trump appear to be falling away, according to the University of Mary Washington poll which puts the race well within its 3.7% margin of error. In the presence of a full field, including voters who may still opt for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. or another third-party candidate, Harris’s lead slips to just 1%.

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To be sure, it will be more difficult for RFK to siphon off Harris voters since he withdrew from the state’s ballot earlier this month. Most polling showed that the former Democrat-turned-independent was likelier to steal votes from Trump, whom he endorsed and pledged to help win in November. Regardless, the latest result out of Virginia will certainly set off alarm bells in the Harris camp which until now had seen advantages of anyway from three to 10 points over the past two months, according to previous polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight.

Samples were collected between September 3rd and 9th and do not reflect an outpouring of sympathy for President Trump following a second assassination attempt against him over the past weekend. Harris, President Joe Biden, and top Democrats have been caught flat-footed, denouncing violence while attempting to explain away by would-be shooter Ryan Wesley Routh repeated their refrains about Trump being a “threat to democracy.” Routh also had a history of donating exclusively to leading Democratic politicians.

As in other swing states, President Trump is outpacing other top Republicans on the ballot. Hung Cao, a decorated Navy veteran and the Republican U.S. Senate nominee, trails Sen. Kaine by 6%, a result that mirrors those in states like Ohio and Arizona. A collection of polls among the top 12 Senate races show that Republican candidates are trailing in eight, including states like Pennsylvania and Michigan where President Trump has posted narrow leads.

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Missteps by Harris are also adding to Democrats’ malaise about November. Gallup produced new results showing that the number of Americans with unfavorable opinions of Harris continues to climb, and at the same time showing that former President Donald Trump is starting to look better with each passing day. Although both candidates are viewed unfavorably by a majority, Harris has lost 5% in the metric. Trump, in a mirror gain, picked up 5%. The survey of 1,000 likely voters carries a +/- margin of error of 2.5%, meaning the changes are statistically significant.

Even more pronounced was the vice president’s stunning loss of one in four independent voters, or a drop of 25% in favorability in a single month. Just 35% of voters unaligned with any party now hold a favorable opinion of Harris compared to 44% preferring Trump. The sea change comes less than a month after Harris was officially nominated by the Democratic Party, ending weeks of a “honeymoon” period that prognosticators wondered would cement a permanent bump in the polls. That turned out to be wishful thinking by her supporters.

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